Views: 0 Author: Site Editor Publish Time: 2020-05-12 Origin: Site
On the afternoon of May 11, 2020, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers held the third monthly information \"cloud release \" meeting this year to review the operation of the automobile industry in April 2020, monthly data on new energy vehicle power batteries, and the basics of electric vehicle charging Contents such as facility promotion and application were released.
In April, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.102 million units and 2.07 million units, an increase of 46.6% and 43.5% from the previous month, and an increase of 2.3% and 4.4% from the same period last year. From January to April, automobile production and sales were 5.596 million units and 5.76 million units, down 33.4% and 31.1% year-on-year. Compared with January-March, the decline was narrowed by 11.8 percentage points and 11.3 percentage points.
In April, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were 80,000 and 72,000, respectively, down 22.1% and 26.5% year-on-year. Among them, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles were 57,000 and 51,000 respectively, down 31.4% and 28.6% year-on-year; the production of plug-in hybrid vehicles was 23,000, an increase of 16.8% year-on-year, and the sales of 20,000 vehicles were completed, a decrease of 20.7 year-on-year %; 109 and 73 fuel cell vehicle production and sales were completed, up 11.1 times and 9.4 times year-on-year respectively.
From January to April, China's production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 205,000 units, down 44.8% and 43.4% year-on-year. Among them, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles were 155,000, down 46.9% and 44.6% respectively; the production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles were 51,000 and 49,000, down 37.6% and 39.8% respectively; the production and sales of fuel cell vehicles Completed 292 and 280 vehicles respectively, up 23.2% and 21.7% year-on-year.
In April, China's power battery production totaled 4.7GWh, an increase of 5.5% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 35.5%. From the perspective of subdivided varieties, the output of ternary batteries decreased both month-on-month and year-on-year. Although the lithium iron phosphate battery declined year-on-year, the month-on-month growth was relatively rapid, and the performance in the month was significantly better than that of ternary batteries. In addition, judging from the installed capacity of power batteries, although the ternary battery data is still significantly higher than that of lithium iron phosphate, the growth of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the month was still higher than that of ternary batteries.
As of April 2020, member units of the China Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Promotion Union have reported a total of 547,000 public charging piles, including 322,000 AC charging piles, 226,000 DC charging piles, and 488 AC and DC integrated charging piles. From May 2019 to April 2020, an average of about 13,000 public charging piles were added each month.
The following are the details of the conference:
1. Production and sales of automobiles in April were better than expected, and commercial vehicles performed more prominently
According to Chen Shihua, deputy secretary general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in April 2020, with the continuous improvement of the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation and the launch of a series of favorable policies by the national and local governments, the production and sales of the automotive industry continued to pick up. Among them, the production and operation of vehicle manufacturers have basically resumed, and the output has reached the level of the same period last year. The overall auto market is gradually recovering. On the one hand, it has benefited from the improvement of the epidemic prevention situation and the promotion of related consumption promotion policies; on the other hand, it is driven by the replenishment of enterprises. As of now, the stock levels of industry enterprises are basically normal. Overall, in April 2020, China's auto industry generally showed the following eight aspects of operating characteristics: 1. Automobile sales ended a continuous 21-month decline; 2. Passenger car production and sales fell significantly narrowed; 3. Commercial vehicle production and sales Volume hits a record high; 4. New energy vehicles continue to decline year-on-year; 5. The market share of Chinese brand passenger cars declines; 6. The market concentration of key enterprise groups is higher than the same period; 7. The year-on-year decline in automobile exports; 8. The economic benefits of key enterprises dramatically drop.
In April, the production and sales of automobiles exceeded 2 million units, which basically returned to the level before the epidemic. Among them, the production and sales of commercial vehicles exceeded 500,000 units, a record monthly high. Although the monthly production and sales of passenger vehicles have narrowed significantly year-on-year, the market share of Chinese brand passenger vehicles has continued to fall faster than last month, with a market share of only 34.6% in the month, the lowest since July 2014. In comparison, the performance of Japanese brand passenger cars is more prominent, and the month-on-year decline has ended, showing a certain increase, and the growth rate exceeds 10%. Although the production and sales of new energy vehicles maintained a quarter-on-quarter growth, the year-on-year decline was still relatively rapid, and the decline was significantly higher than the industry. The production and operation recovery level of new energy vehicles was still lower than the industry.
According to the China Automobile Industry Association, according to the rapid economic indicators of 17 key enterprises (groups) in the industry, the main economic indicators of key enterprises still showed a rapid decline in the first quarter, of which the profit decline was more significant. However, we believe that with the gradual improvement of the production and marketing situation after April, the industry's economic efficiency will gradually increase.
Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, conducted a brief analysis of the resumption of domestic auto companies, the impact of domestic and foreign epidemics on the auto industry, and the current inventory of relevant policies.
According to 23 enterprise groups closely tracked by the Association (204 production bases, annual sales accounted for more than 96%), except for one SAIC company that has not resumed work, the rest have been resumed. From the point of view of the resumption of work of automobile production enterprises in various provinces and cities, as of May 7, all provinces and cities except Xinjiang have resumed work.
On the whole, the impact of the epidemic on various industries in the domestic market and China's export trade is still relatively serious, to a certain extent, it has damaged the income of relevant employees and caused insufficient consumer confidence. From the perspective of overseas markets, the continuous development of the epidemic has caused a huge impact on the global automotive industry. The current impact far exceeds the domestic level. At the same time, many international agencies have lowered their estimates of the global automotive market sales in 2020.
Since the emergence of the epidemic, the state has attached great importance to the prevention and control of the epidemic. General Secretary Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang have put forward requirements for the prevention and control of the epidemic and economic recovery, respectively. Corresponding to this, in order to stabilize the automobile consumption and promote the healthy development of the automobile industry, relevant government administrative departments and various local governments have successively issued a number of related policies in April, which are more intensive and stronger than last month.
2. Completion of power battery and charging pile
Ma Xiaoli, deputy secretary-general of China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, released the monthly information on new energy vehicle power batteries in April 2020. In April, China's power battery production totaled 4.7GWh, an increase of 5.5% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 35.5%. From the perspective of subdivided varieties, the output of ternary batteries decreased both month-on-month and year-on-year. Although the lithium iron phosphate battery declined year-on-year, the month-on-month growth was relatively rapid, and the performance in the month was significantly better than that of ternary batteries. In addition, judging from the installed capacity of power batteries, although the ternary battery data is still significantly higher than that of lithium iron phosphate, the growth of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the month was still higher than that of ternary batteries.
Tongzongqi, Director of the Information Department of the China Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Promotion Alliance, announced the promotion and application of the national electric vehicle charging infrastructure in 2019: As of April 2020, the member units in the alliance reported a total of 547,000 public charging piles, including AC charging piles 322,000 sets, DC charging piles 226,000 sets, AC and DC integrated charging piles 488 sets. From May 2019 to April 2020, an average of about 13,000 public charging piles were added each month.
In April 2020, the number of public charging stations increased by 5,000 compared with March, which increased by 39.8% year-on-year in April. At present, the industry is still affected by the new coronary pneumonia epidemic. Compared with the average monthly growth rate of more than 50% before the epidemic, the new charging station in April Although the number of investment projects has shown a significant recovery from February and March, the growth rate has remained low. In addition, the public charging infrastructure construction area is still relatively concentrated, among which the top ten provinces and cities are: Jiangsu, Guangdong, Shanghai, Beijing, Shandong, Zhejiang, Anhui, Hebei, Hubei, Fujian, accounting for 73.8%.
3. The research and judgment of the automobile industry development situation and the future automobile industry trend in May
As the production and sales situation in April tends to improve, we believe that the auto industry will continue to pick up further in May. It is worth mentioning that on April 28, 11 ministries and commissions including the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment jointly issued the “Notice on Several Measures for Stabilizing and Expanding Automobile Consumption”, The five major measures include: \"Adjust the relevant requirements of the National Six Emission Standards, improve the fiscal and taxation support policies for the purchase of new energy vehicles, accelerate the elimination of scrapped old diesel trucks, smooth the circulation of second-hand vehicles, and make good use of automobile consumer finance.\" It is an important pain point and difficulty in the current development process of the automobile industry. These problems have been effectively solved, which can greatly reduce the negative impact of the epidemic on the automobile industry. It will have a steady, healthy development and vigorously promote consumption in the future. Will play a positive role.
We believe that with the gradual implementation of the relevant preferential policies and measures in the \"Notice\", it will undoubtedly further accelerate the production enthusiasm of enterprises in the industry, and at the same time will also greatly increase the consumption momentum and promote the market to recover as soon as possible.
However, it should also be noted that although the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation is improving, the spread of overseas epidemic conditions has not been effectively contained, and there is still great uncertainty in the epidemic situation. On the one hand, the recovery of domestic macroeconomic growth still needs a process, and export-dependent enterprises are even more difficult, resulting in insufficient kinetic energy for bulk consumer demand; on the other hand, the suspension of overseas factories will also increase the supply risk of some parts of the domestic auto industry . Therefore, the industry should focus on the changes in overseas epidemic prevention and control, and make appropriate preparations in advance to reduce the negative impact of the international epidemic on the domestic automotive industry.
For the forecast of the auto market trend for the whole year of 2020, considering the impact of domestic and foreign epidemics on the automotive industry, the association predicts from two aspects: optimism and pessimism:
1. Optimistic forecast: If the overseas epidemic situation is effectively controlled in the second quarter, it is expected that China's auto market sales will decline by 15% year-on-year in 2020;
2. Pessimistic forecast: If the overseas epidemic situation cannot be effectively contained, it will affect the third quarter or longer. It is expected that China's auto market sales in 2020 may decline by 25% year-on-year.
